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Anthropic Flags Gas Supply as One of Its Biggest Near-Term Risks
Cleanview counts 110 GW of behind-the-meter gas in development, up from 20 GW in July 2025, so we treat firm fuel as a site screen, not a given.
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A national briefing on power, data centers, gas, land, and the policy that decides where large load can be built.
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Cleanview counts 110 GW of behind-the-meter gas in development, up from 20 GW in July 2025, so we treat firm fuel as a site screen, not a given.
The pending tariff covers grid connections, not new plants, and the state puts data center generation near $50 billion by 2050, so we still price that bill as open.
About 12,000 MW is under contract on 14-year terms, with a 60% generation minimum and $1.5 million per MW of collateral, the stranded-cost screen we now expect.
The 10-year plan rises $4 billion to $70.7 billion to serve 14 GW of new Houston demand by 2030, so we treat new wires, not the request queue, as what gets built.
A $63 billion loan funds 3.5 GW of chips with delivery from 2027, and the seller is backstopping the banks, so we treat chip finance as a gate on US halls.
The first of four buildings is topped out on a 1,400-acre campus aimed at 2.5 GW, and the gas connection remains the schedule risk we would underwrite.
Oracle describes a multi-year, multi-gigawatt build of these chips in its own halls, available in 2027, so we count it as contracted power demand.
A $3 billion investment into a $97.5 billion equity raise puts chip-vendor capital behind the tenant, which we read as more demand for powered halls.
A filing seeks 11 buildings and 520 MW on 542 acres, with a 2031 date and on-site generation still unnamed, so we count no megawatts until power is contracted.
Most of a 22.5 MW lease is now live in an existing hall, which we read as near-term compute still landing where power is already on.
An AU$4.25 billion loan funds a campus that could reach 400 MW by mid-2028, which we log as financed construction, not new US capacity.
Large gas turbines are sold out through 2029, and some orders run to 2031, so we date on-site plants to the equipment slot, not the announcement.
Commissioners hear a 238-acre rezoning for up to 1.8 million square feet after the planning board urged denial, so we do not treat the site as entitled.
A 6-3 vote clears two sites filed before the city pause, so we separate in-process entitlements from anything still outside the door.
Records show about $155,000 an acre for 616 acres, more than triple the price paid days earlier, a comp we will use for unpowered Midwest land with a campus label.
Council sent a 321-acre master plan back for more study on setbacks and compliance, so we expect rural rezonings near homes to slip at least one cycle.
The mandate now starts above 10 MW and allows up to five years to reach an 80% hourly renewable match, a screen we will compare as US states write their own.
The vote slipped a day after police closed the hearing, and an $80 million subsidy ask is already withdrawn, so we treat local consent as a line on the schedule.
Two former managers settled over fees on Virginia build-to-suit leases, with a Nov. 2 trial still set for the developer, so we flag related-party land in diligence.
The pause failed on a procedural vote and would not have covered an application already accepted, which is why we still value sites already in queue.
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Thirty projects need $3.1 billion in wires against $721 million in deposits, and that gap is the cost allocation fight we expect every large-load tariff to have next.
Loads above 75 MW pay for dedicated infrastructure, post collateral, and sign 12 to 17 year contracts with exit fees, terms we now price into every site plan.
The open question is who carries generation built for a campus that leaves early, and we expect exit fees and minimum bills to keep tightening as that debate spreads.
Eleven of 15 state commissions want more protection before a 120-day fast track for 200 MW loads paired with nearby generation, so we would not count on that path for 2027 energization.
State law lets loads near 100 MW build closed private generation and pay their own transmission, which moves the screen from utility capacity to gas access and land.
The Georgia campus seeks to fill 72 acres of wetlands on a 2,600-acre hub with 3.2 GW contracted, a reminder that Army Corps permits can set the schedule even after power is secured.
Large balance sheets are still raising GPU money while smaller neoclouds report tighter credit, so we weight site demand toward tenants with revenue outside AI hosting.
Three break-ins since September, one taking over $200,000 in copper piping, make site security a line item for rural construction phases.
East Daley risk-weights 42.5 GW of announced load in the line's six states to about 0.75 Bcf/d, so we read utility commitments beyond one block as bets on peak days and coal retirements.
A combined 9 Bcf/d producer with 3,700 miles of pipe and a Q1 2027 close gives Appalachian sites one large counterparty for long-term supply deals.
The S-1 lists competition for gas, pipeline capacity, and grid access as risks, which tells us tenants now underwrite fuel supply the way they once underwrote fiber.
A 3,700-acre pitch near an existing substation shows federal land entering the site mix, though BLM says a notice of intent is likely a year or more away.
About 840 acres next to a $10 billion campus are moving to heavy industrial zoning, with a signed letter of intent under NDA on 684 acres and a final vote set for November 23.
A 141-acre piece is marketed as a data center site and more than 50 residents objected, so we expect industrial rezonings near homes to keep slipping a cycle.
Bills filed for 2027 include a statewide pause for facilities at 20 MW or more through 2028, so we treat New England sites as on hold until the session settles.
The unanimous vote runs the pause to October 18, 2027, and the city is waiting on the legislature for downzoning power, so we expect new Charlotte applications to sit for a year.
The pause stops later phases of an approved project but leaves phase one alone, which is why we value sites with entitlements already in hand.
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